Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from advanced model on 86-58 run – CBS Sports

The Denver Broncos have won two straight games on the strength of their defense. Now, they will try to keep rolling when Denver hosts the AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos have won two in a row and allow only 17.7 points per game. Von Miller and the defense dominated in a 16-0 victory against Tennessee last Sunday, posting seven sacks and three interceptions, forcing Tennessee to make a quarterback change that could become permanent. The Chiefs boast the league’s top passing offense behind MVP Patrick Mahomes, but have lost two in a row. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Mile High. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 49.5. Before you make any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, you should look at the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 7 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-15 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 86-58 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 6, it nailed the Patriots (-17) covering a large spread against the Giants and the Seahawks (+1) winning straight-up as underdogs against the Browns

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has simulated Chiefs vs. Broncos 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine. 

The model knows Mahomes is 3-0 against Denver, and the Chiefs have not scored fewer than 27 points in those meetings. He had 303 yards and four touchdown passes against them in a 30-23 victory in their last meeting, in Week 8 of last season. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is coming off an eye-popping game in his return from a shoulder injury, with four catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Houston.

Mahomes has plenty of other weapons available, including All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 32 catches for 497 yards. Mecole Hardman filled in well while Hill recovered from a broken collarbone and has 16 catches for 291 yards, while Demarcus Robinson, with 17 catches for 281 yards, also has flashed big-play ability.

But just because Kansas City can put up points doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread on Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos lost their first four games, but two of those came on last-minute kicks. In winning their last two, they have allowed only a punt return touchdown and two field goals. Linebacker Von Miller is still a pillar of the defense and has 2.5 sacks in the last three games, while safety Justin Simmons leads the team with 30 tackles and has two interceptions. Derek Wolfe and DeMarcus Walker each had two sacks against the Titans, while Alexander Johnson had 1.5. 

The Broncos rank 15th in the NFL in rushing, averaging 116 yards per game. Phillip Lindsay leads the team in that department with 397 yards, while Royce Freeman has 248. Both also contribute to the passing game, combining almost equally for 40 catches and 292 yards. Courtland Sutton has emerged as the top target with 30 receptions for 477 yards and three TDs, with veteran Joe Flacco throwing for 1,435 yards in managing the offense.

So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over on Thursday night, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.