Ukraine has no “playing cards” in keeping with President Donald Trump, whereas Russia has many. Vice President J. D. Vance has asserted that superior Russian firepower and manpower imply that the battle can finish solely in a Russian victory. Different supposedly lifelike commentators agree, arguing that Russia’s benefits are insurmountable.
As army historians, we expect this a misreading not solely of what’s occurring on the bottom, however of how wars unfold—and, specifically, of the distinction between attritional campaigns and people constructed on maneuver. The Luftwaffe and the German submarine pressure throughout World Battle II, to take simply two examples, had been defeated not by a single blow, however by a technologically superior, tactically and operationally refined method that rendered these organizations, giant as they had been, unable to perform successfully. In the identical vein, the advances of the German military within the spring of 1918 hid the underlying weak spot in that army produced by attrition, which finally doomed the Kaiser’s military and the regime for which it fought.
Now we have been right here earlier than. Previous to the battle, the intelligence neighborhood, political leaders, and plenty of college students of the Russian army concluded that Russia would simply overrun Ukraine militarily—that Kyiv would fall in just a few days and that Ukraine itself might be conquered in weeks. We must always take into account that failure as we assess the knowledge of Vance and people who assume like him.
Wars are hardly ever received so decisively, as a result of attrition is just not solely a situation of battle, however a strategic selection. Smaller powers can, by the clever software of attrition, achieve advancing their very own objectives. That is significantly true if, like Ukraine, they’ll exploit technological change and get probably the most from outdoors assist and allies. Vietnam was outgunned by the USA, because the American colonies had been as soon as outgunned by the British empire. Iranian forces outnumbered these of Iraq throughout an extended and brutal battle within the Eighties, and misplaced nonetheless.
The pessimistic evaluation has not paid practically sufficient consideration to the weak underpinnings of Russian army energy. Russia’s financial system, as usually famous, is combating rates of interest which have topped 20 p.c amid hovering inflation, and with manpower shortages made vital by the battle. Its situation is dire, as one examine famous, partly as a result of the army funds quantities to 40 p.c of all public spending, and partly as a result of oil income is taking successful from decrease costs, Ukrainian assaults, and tightening sanctions.
Russian weak spot is especially seen within the military. One report by the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research estimated that in 2024 alone, the Russians misplaced 1,400 foremost battle tanks, and greater than 3,700 infantry combating autos and armored personnel carriers. On the identical time, Russian manufacturing of such autos, together with refurbished models, totaled simply 4,300, not sufficient to make up for its losses. In desperation, Russia has turned to restoring its oldest and least efficient fight autos, a lot of Soviet classic. One latest examine by Chatham Home asserts that the Russian military-industrial complicated is “sick tailored to take care of the results of a protracted battle towards Ukraine or to realize a sustainable future by way of manufacturing, innovation and improvement.”
The identical holds true for Russian manpower. The variety of troopers that the Russians had been capable of keep on the entrance appeared to peak within the spring and summer season of 2024, above 650,000. By the top of the yr, it had fallen nearer to 600,000, regardless of the extraordinary bonuses that the Russian authorities presents new recruits, amounting to about two and a half instances the typical annual Russian wage in 2023.
Russian casualties have mounted steadily. In accordance with the British Ministry of Defence, in December 2022, they stood at roughly 500 a day; in December 2023, at slightly below 1,000; and in December 2024, at greater than 1,500. In 2024 alone, Russia suffered practically 430,000 killed and wounded, in contrast with simply over 250,000 in 2023.
North Korean reinforcements have attracted consideration within the press, however these troops, numbering within the tens of hundreds at most, can’t make up for the elemental deficiencies in Russian manpower. Furthermore, the excessive charges of attrition that the Russians have suffered—roughly the identical because the variety of personnel mobilized annually—imply that the Russian army has not been capable of reconstitute. It’s increasingly a primitive pressure, poorly skilled and led, pushed ahead by worry alone.
The pause in American assist final yr damage Ukraine. Now, nevertheless, the stockpiles appear to be in higher form for many forms of weaponry. Ukraine’s personal manufacturing has reached spectacular ranges in sure important classes, significantly however not solely unmanned aerial autos. In 2024, the Ukrainian army acquired over 1.2 million completely different Ukrainian-produced UAVs—two orders of magnitude greater than Ukraine possessed, not to mention produced, firstly of the battle. Ukrainian manufacturing charges are nonetheless rising; it goals to supply 4 million drones this yr alone.
UAVs are essential as a result of they’ve changed artillery as the simplest system on the sphere of battle. By one estimate, UAVs now trigger 70 p.c of Russian losses. Ukraine’s sturdy protection trade is innovating extra shortly and successfully than that of Russia and its allies.
Attritional wars happen on many fronts. For instance, it’s true that Russia has elevated its assaults on Ukrainian trade and civilian targets, in addition to vitality infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses, nevertheless, have been remarkably profitable in neutralizing the big majority of these assaults, which is why Ukrainian civilian casualties have been lowering. Ukraine has, furthermore, been on the offensive as properly. It has produced some 6,000 longer-range heavy UAVs, which it has used to assault deep into Russia, lowering Russian oil manufacturing. Remarkably, Ukraine seems to be matching the speed at which Russia is producing its personal related drone, the Shahed, which is being constructed on license from Iran.
Regardless of American reluctance to offer additional assist, Ukraine’s European associates could make a major distinction despite the fact that they can not merely change what the U.S. has been offering. They don’t, for example, make the superior Patriot anti-missile system, though they produce other succesful air-defense weapons. Nonetheless, Europe may also help Ukraine press forward with extra UAV manufacturing; Europeans have the capability to fabricate engines for long-range UAVs, for instance, at a far larger charge.
And a few European techniques not but supplied—such because the German Taurus cruise missile—might enhance Ukraine’s benefits. Germany has to this point denied Ukraine the Taurus, a much more efficient system with higher vary and a heavier payload than the Franco-British Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. The brand new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has already mentioned he would ship Taurus missiles to Ukraine if the Russians didn’t relent. With these techniques, Ukraine might add to the appreciable injury it has already achieved inside Russia.
Attritional campaigns rely upon an industrial base. The European Union alone has a GDP about 10 instances that of Russia, and in the event you add the U.Okay. and Norway to that calculation, the imbalance in favor of Ukraine grows even bigger. As it’s, Europe and the USA have supplied Ukraine with roughly equal quantities of its army assets (30 p.c every), whereas Ukraine has produced 40 p.c by itself.
The U.S. has supplied extra than simply army materials—it has additionally furnished intelligence and entry to Starlink web companies. None of this could shortly be made up, though once more, one shouldn’t underestimate the depth of technological and intelligence assets out there from Europe and sympathetic Asian nations, ought to they mobilize. The USA has stinted its assist till now, however Ukraine itself and its European allies are filling the gaps.
Ukraine is just not on the breaking point, and it’s Russia, not Ukraine, that’s dropping the attritional battle, which makes the Trump administration’s selections significantly shortsighted and tragic. Ukraine has loads of playing cards, even when Trump and Vance can’t see them. If America’s leaders might solely convey themselves to place strain on Russia similar to what they placed on Ukraine, they may assist Ukraine obtain one thing rather more like a win.
